Happy Bird Day!

We had a very nice week in the markets with the major indicators continuing to rise in what some refer to as a TINA market. It’s called TINA because, “There is no alternative” as low interest rates make bonds and other alternatives much less attractive.

I disagree that this is the only driver. As those who have read this letter for a while know, I’m very much an advocate for this market being categorized as one of those secular bull types – not a cyclical bull. Secular bulls are long-lasting and can include bearish periods in the move higher over time.

Many others still feel that stock prices are “too high”. What’s happened is that increasing optimism in general has brought on fears of a bull market top. I believe that assuming that we’ve reached the extremes of past tops seems way overdone.

I think Warren Buffet categorizes it much better. He said last Wednesday that, “I would say that stocks are in a zone of reasonableness. Five years ago, I wrote an article for The New York Times that said they were very cheap. And every now and then, you can see that that they’re either very overpriced or very underpriced. Most of the time, they’re in an area where maybe they’re a little high, a little low, and nobody really knows exactly. They’re definitely not way overpriced. They’re definitely not underpriced.” Well said, as always.

Some holiday history for your review

I thought I’d offer you a little non-market history to help your Thanksgiving dinner time
conversations…besides inquiries about the scores, of course. Did you
know that…

* The earliest documented Thanksgiving celebration was in September,
1565, in what is now St. Petersburg, Florida. (If you’ve ever been
there, I think you’d agree that some of the original celebrants might
still be around…)

* The Pilgrims spent two months at sea. By the time of their first
celebration, 10 months after arriving, they had erected 7 houses, a
meeting house and 3 storehouses.

* Squanto was a Wampanoag Indian who had spent 9 years in England.  He
acted as the intermediary between the rest of his tribe and with
Massasoit in particular. (Massasoit was not actually a person’s name
but a title meaning Great Sachem or chief. The real name of the
Massasoit at the time was Ousamequin.) Spelling class must have been
really tough for those guys…

* Even though potatoes hadn’t been imported nor had any cans of fried
onion rings, mushroom soup or even beer yet been discovered, their feast – which was really a series of meals over a week – was still pretty varied. They likely had
fish, cabbage, squash, stuffing, cranberries, onions, corn, duck, eels
and venison as the main ingredients. No word on fruit cake…

* A lady named Sarah Josepha Hale – who was the author of “Mary had a
little lamb” and a well-regarded magazine editor – was the force behind
making this a national occasion. She convinced President Lincoln to
declare Thanksgiving, “a national holiday to be observed on the last
Thursday of November.”

* Minnesota is our top turkey producing state. (No snide reference to
those fine citizens intended)

* The first Macy’s Thanksgiving parade was held in 1924, featuring real
animals from the Central Park Zoo. The big balloons first floated in
1927.

* The first nationally broadcast football game – on radio – was the
Lions v. the Bears in 1924. They played in front of an overflow crowd
of 26,000… Go Bears…but only in the football sense.

No letter next week.

In the meantime, please have a most wonderful Thanksgiving/Hanukkah!

Cheers!

Mike

509-747-3323

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